Asian Journal of Geographical Research

Rainfall Recovery in North-East Arid Zone of Nigeria: Comparative Analysis of Drought and Post Drought Decades

Ahmed Abubakar Jajere *

Department of Geography, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria.

Adam Modu Abbas

Department of Geography, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria.

Ali Abdu

Department of Geography, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

---

Abstract

This study used annual rainfall records from three stations within the North East Arid Zone of Nigeria for the period (1957-2017) to measure the extent of the rainfall recovery by comparing the drought decades and post drought decades rainfall patterns. Monthly rainfall records from Potiskum, Maiduguri and Nguru Stations were used. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools were employed in analysing the data. The findings of the study revealed a significant year-to-year variability in rainfall characteristics around 61 years (1957-2017) averages. The variability was large in 1970s up till 1990s, and lower in 1960s and from 2000 to 2018. Decreasing trend in annual rainfall amount was observed during the study period while a stability in onset and cessation dates were observed. The differences between 1957-1986 and 1987-2017 climatic season were found to be statistically insignificant. The study concluded that the reported rainfall recovery from drought is statistically insignificant and the observed long term mean trend revealed a decreasing trend. Therefore, the theory of Sahel rainfall recovery can be better termed as a ‘’break of the series of drought or decline in frequency and magnitude of occurrence of drought’’ The research recommended the continuations with the drought adaptation and mitigation strategies adopted by local population, decisions makers and organizations following the series Sahelian droughts of 1970s and 1980s.

Keywords: Rainfall, drought, variability, arid and Sahel

---

---

---

References

Food and Agricultural Organization. The state of food and Agriculture; 2007.

Available:http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a1200e/a1200e00.htm

IFAD. Climate Change and the future of smallholder agriculture climate change and the future of smallholder agriculture how can rural poor people be a part of the solution to climate change? Discussion paper prepared for the Round Table on Climate Change at the Thirty-first session of IFAD’s Governing Council, 14 February 2008; 2008.

Agnew C, Chappel A. Drought in the Sahel. Geo. Journal. 1999;48(4):299 – 311.

Retrieved August 27, 2021,

Available:http://ww.jstor.org/stable/41147385.

Seaquist JW, Olsson L, Ardo J, Eklundh L. Broad-scale increase in NPP quantified for the African Sahel, 1982e1999. Inter J Remote Sens. 2006;27:5115–5122.

Eklundh L, Olsson L. Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999.Geophysical Research Letters. 2003;30:1430–1433.

Anyamba, Tuckers. Analysis of sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003. Journal of Arid Environments. 2005;63:596–614 Available:www.elsevier.com/locate/jnlabr/yjare

Heumann BW, Seaquist JW, Lars Eklundh, Per Jönsson. AVHRR derived phenological change in the sahel and Sudan, Africa, 1982–2005. Journal of Remote Sensing of Environment. 2007;108I(4)P385-392.

Available:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425706005049

Hellden U, Tottrup C. Regional desertification: A global syn-thesis, Global Planet. Change. 2008;64:169–176.

Tene Kwetche Sop, Jens Oldeland, Fidèle Bognounou, Ute Schmiedel, Adjima Thiombiano. Environment, development and sustainability 145627-649Springer Netherlands; 2012.

Herrmann BW. Variability of Sahelian rainfall and its impact on vegetation Dynamics. Sahel conference 2007: improving lives by understanding weather; 2005.

Available:http://www.africa.ucar.edu/documents/sahel 20april%2007 /wednesday/ Herrmann20Vegetation.pdf

Olsson L, Eklundh L, Ardö J. A recent greening of the Sahel-trends, patterns and potential causes. Journal of Arid Environments. 2005;63(3):556-566.

Jajere AA. Analysis of wetlands response to climatic variability in Kumadugu-Yobe river basin of West Africa. Ph.D Thesis submitted to School of Postgraduate studies Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria; 2021.

Usman SU, Abdulhamid AI, Sawa BA. An Assessment of spatio-temporal variability of drought in the semi-arid zone of nigeria using standardized precipitation index. Zaria Geographer. 2015;22(1):P98-108.

ISSN:0795-7599

Stephen, Bunmi. Ogungbenro, Tobi, Eniolu. Morakinyo. Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in Nigeria. Weather and Climate Extremes. 2014;5-6:1–6 Available:www.elsevier.com/locate/wace.

Ifabiyi IP, Ojoye S. Rainfall trend in the Sudano-Sahelian Ecological zone of Nigeria. Journal of Earth Science Research. 2013;2(2).

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/esr.v2n2p194

Murtala U. Mohammed, Abdulhamid A, Badamasi MM, Ahmed M. Rainfall dynamics and climate change in Kano, Nigeria Journal of Scientific Research & Reports. 2015;7(5):386-395:Article no.JSRR.2015.220ISSN: 2320-0227

Souleymane Sanogo, Andreas H. Fink, Jerome A. Omotosho, Abdramane Ba, Robert Redl, Volker Africa. Ermert. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West. 2015;4589-4605. Available:https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/pb-assets/journal- banners/10970088-1608645804047.jpg. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4309

Alka Singh, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi. Estimation of hydrological drought recovery based on GRACE water storage deficit; 2019.

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-590

Preprint

Rashid M, Shaofeng J, Wenbin Z. Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa; 2019.

Available:www.nature.com/scientificreports

Nicholson SE, Andreas H. Fink, Chris Funk. Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record. International Journal of Climatology. 2018;38(10):3770-3786.

Dong B, Sutton R. Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall. Nature Clim Change. 2015; 5:757–760. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2664

Heidi Humer-Gruber. Sahel greening symposium in Gustav-Stresemann Institution, Bonn Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenar beit (GIZ) GmbH Postfach. 2010;5180.

Tim j, Peterson M, Saft MC. Peel, John A. Watersheds may not recover from drought. Science•14 May 2021. 2021;372(6543) 745-749.

DOI:10.1126/science.abd5085